Design and Development of Stochastic Modelling for Musa paradisiaca Linn Production in India

Abstract

This study aims at design and development of stochastic modelling for Musa paradisiaca Linn(Banana) production in India during the years from 1961 to 2019. In India,plantation of banana can take place from February to May in South India, and from July to August in North India. And, in South India, except during the summer. The study considers Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA) and ARIMA processes to select the appropriate ARIMA model for Musa paradisiaca Linnproduction in India. Based on ARIMA (p,d,q) and its components Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Function(PACF), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Normalized BIC and Box-Ljung Q statistics estimated, ARIMA (0,1,1) was selected. Based on the chosen model, it could be predicted that Musa paradisiaca Linnproduction would increase to 36.09 million tons in 2025 from 30.46million tons in 2019 in India.